Obama and the Challenge of Afghanistan
Western Military Officials and Diplomats Deem Victory Impossible
Afghanistan may be Obama's first international challenge if he becomes President in 2009. The American strategy in in that country shows increasing signs of failing. The corrupt government of President Hamid Karza is not trusted, barely able to resist the Talaban uprising, and the country continues to be on a downward spiral.
Afganistan's Precarious Position
General Mark Carteton-Smith has been quoted as saying that the Talaban will never be defeated. In speaking to the Sunday Times, he said that a military victory over it was neither feasible nor supportable and the American strategy is doomed to fail. In a report, The National Intelligence Estimate, according to Der Speigel (10/17/08), which will be released after the U.S. presidential election in November, intelligence agents have come to the same conclusion. The 16 U.S. intelligence services involved write that Afghanistan is in a dangerous "downward spiral"." The report cites mounting violence and a government consumed by corruption and barely capable of resisting the Talaban. The prediction is that it is going to get even worse next year.
The drug trade in Afghanistan accounts for 53 percent of its gross national product, bringing in billions of dollars a year in some provinces. Yet no single corrupt minister or leading drug baron has been even charged with a crime much less sentenced. Karzai looks the other way as long as the profiteers support him. His own brother, Ahmed Wali, has been accused of being involved with the drug trade.
Talaban Forces
The Talaban leadership is estimated at only a few hundred men, while the core of their militia consists of roughly 5,000 fighters. However, it can count a total of 16,000 armed men in their camp that includes:
- Fighters from the Pakistani tribal regions.
- Foreign Islamists and so-called part-time fighters.
- Mercenaries willing to fight on the side of the religious fanatics for cash payment.
Ideology is secondary in the insurgency; struggles for economic resources and political power are the real sources of conflict. The governors often favor a specific clan, excluding other Afghans from the distribution of jobs and aid funds which drives them into the arms of the extremists.
Reconciliation the Key to Success
The United States is determined to stop the downward spiral in Afghanistan and plans to send another 20,000 troops to the country by 2011, hoping to repeat the surge strategy that has seen some success in Iraq. The British maintain that the U.S. is repeating the same mistakes the Soviets military made and that additional U.S. soldiers could more likely heat up the conflict. Their thinking is to use more reconciliation, more reconstruction and more offers for those who want to get out of the conflict.
Afgan President Karzai has repeatedly asked the Saudi monarch to use his influence, as the political leader of the country that watches over Islam's holiest sites, to reconcile the two hostile groups. There actually was a meeting between government officials from Kabul and Talaban representatives at Mecca At this time, however no softening on either side is apparent.
Western diplomats and some military officials agree that nothing is moving forward anymore and yet no way has been found to extradite America and the supporters of its war in Afghanistan. The conclusion seems to be that they are trapped, with no end of the conflict in sight. Obama will have to make the decision of whether to continue the fight or retreat and leave the Afghans and the Talaban to fight it out.
Middle East Map
|
What do you think about this article?
More in Politics & Society
Latest Articles