John Howard in the Asia-Pacific
Is Australian foreign policy development finding new principles?
Does John Howard's plan for a regional carbon-emissions pact signal a radical change to relations with the Asia-Pacific and Australian foreign policy generally?
Australia’s Prime Minister John Howard recently flagged a plan for a pact in the Asia-Pacific region to reduce carbon emissions. He is working to persuade the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum to adopt his scheme when he hosts its conference in September 2007. Does this herald a radical change in Australia’s international relations?
Australian foreign policy under John Howard
John Howard hitherto scorned the concept of “engagement” with the Asia-Pacific region. Multilateral dealings with neighbouring nations were anathema. Instead his government pursued the path of bilateral agreements and negotiations in accord with whatever it believed to be the nation’s self-interest – usually defined in economic terms. Howard’s approach was opposite to that of the Keating government which preceded him.
One major example was Howard’s persistent refusal to sign the ASEAN Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation on the grounds that it would be a potential hindrance to Australia’s efforts to defend its own borders and security. He made it clear that he was talking about the possibility of military attacks on Australia being launched from neighbouring countries. He said he would not hesitate to make pre-emptive strikes against any of them that he thought to be a threat. His blatant posturing in the Asia-Pacific as the “Deputy Sheriff” (his words) of the USA’s Bush government provoked hostility from many neighbouring nations. Eventually Howard begrudgingly signed the ASEAN Treaty, but the episode left a pool of ill-feeling among many in the region.
Australians and Asians the best of friends
On the other hand, there were compassionate but rare actions like the Howard government’s immediate promise of substantial aid to countries hit by the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004. This reflected more genuinely the attitudes of Australian people at the grass-roots level towards citizens of other nations in the Asia-Pacific region.
In a professional international survey rare for its kind, the Australian people show warm feelings towards the other countries of the Asia-Pacific region in general. (Indonesia seems to be the one exception.) In fact they show the greatest trust and friendship towards China of all the nations surveyed!
At the same time Australians think the government foreign policy centres far too much on the alliance with the USA. The Deputy Sheriff has little support from his own people!
Is John Howard changing direction?
Now Howard’s plan for a regional pact on carbon emissions has gained close cooperation from New Zealand, with which he is forming a working group to arrive at a joint carbon trading scheme before the APEC meeting. Australia has also discussed with Canada the possibility of adopting similar schemes. Is this a sudden move towards multi-lateral foreign policy?
It may be no coincidence that John Howard’s sudden public about-turn on the issue of climate change occurred at the same time as that of US President George Bush in June. This could serve simply to reinforce the firm view of many people in the Asia-Pacific region that Howard does indeed take his direction on international relations from Bush.
The Future of Australia’s International Relations
It seems that the Howard government’s recent lurch towards a regional pact was prompted by the prospect of losing a federal election later in 2007 to Rudd’s Labor Party, which had gained huge electoral support for its environmental policy. Seasoned Australian observers suggest that if Howard is re-elected he is likely to lapse into his old sceptical inaction on the issue.
No doubt many East Asian observers are also watching him through sceptical eyes. Remembering the history of relations with Australia over the last decade, they could be forgiven for doubting Howard’s apparent conversion to multi-lateralism. Whatever the result of the APEC debate, they will expect the government’s usual approach to foreign relations to resume. Unless, of course, the Sheriff tells his Deputy to take a new path.
