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The announced resignation of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has significant implications for the U.S. war on terrorism.
Quit or You’re FiredPresident Musharraf was facing a dilemma: resign or face impeachment by an increasingly hostile parliament led by the two main parties opposed to Musharraf’s continued rule. With the opposition refusing to grant Musharraf immunity, the former head of Pakistan’s military turned civilian president had little choice but to resign his post or face a humiliating trial and probable conviction on charges that had yet to be announced. Pakistan and the War on Terror Immediately following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, Pakistan was presented with a choice. Either join the United States by providing support for the coming war in Afghanistan, or risk isolation and possible punitive measures as a regime that had long supported the Taliban, hosts to Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda. Musharraf chose to side with the United States, instantly becoming a reluctant, and often inconsistent ally in the war on terror. Musharraf ended official Pakistani support for the Taliban, although it is widely accepted that the ISI security and intelligence apparatus is still providing assistance to the ousted Afghan regime. What’s Next for the War on TerrorWith Musharraf out of the picture, Pakistan’s future as an ally in the war on terror is very much in doubt. Members of the ruling coalition in parliament have demonstrated a willingness to negotiate with Islamic extremists, while being hesitant to employ military force against radicals conducting attacks in Pakistan and across the border in Afghanistan. Musharraf’s departure from the Pakistani political scene will force the United States to look for other actors within Pakistan’s government who are willing to take on a growing terrorist threat within Pakistan. The border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan has become increasingly volatile over the past few years, with both Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al Zawahiri, believed to be hiding in the mountainous tribal area. A lack of strong action by whoever emerges as the strongman in Islamabad could result in an increase in cross border operations by U.S. special forces and unmanned aerial drones hunting Taliban and al Qaeda fighters. So far, the U.S. has avoided sending large numbers of ground forces across the border into Pakistan, preferring instead to limit its actions to air and artillery strikes. That could change, though, if Pakistan balks at taking the measures necessary to limit Pakistan-based attacks on U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
The copyright of the article Musharraf's Resignation and the War on Terror in International Affairs is owned by Greg Reeson. Permission to republish Musharraf's Resignation and the War on Terror in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.
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