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Russia and Georgia at WarFighting Escalates as Russian Troops Enter the FrayRussia is using its military power to force Georgia's hand in South Ossetia, and the Russians will likely end the conflict on the terms of their choosing.
The war between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia continued into the weekend, with Russia escalating the level of violence by sending tanks, combat aircraft, and ground troops across the border to engage Georgian military forces. Current Situation The latest reports from the region indicate that the Russian military has entered the city of Tskhinvali, the primary urban area of South Ossetia. Georgia has announced that it will withdraw about 1,000 combat troops from Iraq to help fight Russian forces. The reality of the situation is that the Georgian military is no match for the Russians, and the only question that remains is where and when Russian military forces will stop their advance. An offensive push into Georgia proper, outside the South Ossetian region, could prompt U.S. or international involvement. Russia asserts its intervention is based on a need to protect Russian citizens and Russian peacekeepers located in South Ossetia, while the Georgian government claims it is the victim of Russian aggression in response to Georgian attempts to assert control over Georgian territory. What’s Next? The fact that Russia holds military superiority means that it will be Russia that dictates the terms of any cease-fire. It is likely that fighting will stop sometime in the next few days, with Russia strengthened and Georgia weakened in what has been a long-running dispute between the two countries. It is important to remember the root cause of Russia’s angst. Georgia represents a traditional buffer area for the Russians, and an area that has traditionally fallen within Russia’s sphere of influence. Moscow is getting serious about rebuffing advances by the West and NATO along its periphery, and Georgia’s overtures to the West have not gone over well in Russia. Russian Options Strategic Forecasting (STRATFOR), a private geopolitical intelligence firm, says Russia has four options for handling the crisis in South Ossetia. The first is to use its military power to force Georgia to negotiate over the future of the region. Second, STRATFOR says, Russia could set up shop in Tskhinvali and thus weaken Georgia’s hold on South Ossetia. Third, Russia could push its military advance further into South Ossetia in a bid to diminish Georgia’s sovereignty in the region. Finally, STRATFOR says, Russia could move its forces into Georgia proper to remove the Georgian government from power. While STRATFOR does not offer a guess as to which option Russia will pursue, it is highly unlikely that the conflict will result in the overthrow of the Georgian government. Instead, Russia will likely assert control over South Ossetia and force Georgia to accept a settlement that diminishes its control over the region.
The copyright of the article Russia and Georgia at War in International Affairs is owned by Greg Reeson. Permission to republish Russia and Georgia at War in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.
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