Russia Plans Occupation of Georgia

Violating the Cease Fire

Dispatches from the war between Georgia and Russia clearly demonstrate a plan by Moscow to establish an ongoing military presence within Georgia proper, at least for the foreseeable future.

The Russian plan calls for a series of military checkpoints outside the disputed breakaway province of South Ossetia and within what is internationally recognized sovereign Georgian territory.

Such a plan, if implemented, would violate the terms of the cease-fire brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy that called for all military forces to return to their pre-conflict positions. Georgian, Russian, and South Ossetian officials all agreed to the cease-fire deal.

Russian forces were present in South Ossetia prior to the commencement of hostilities two weeks ago, and it was widely expected that the pre-conflict status quo would be reestablished.

Russian forces entered South Ossetia and then Georgia proper, ostensibly to protect Russian citizens and Russian peacekeepers, after Georgia launched an August 7th military offensive against the self-declared independent province.

International Impotence

While the United States and other western nations have voiced their opposition to a continuing Russian military presence in Georgia, the reality is that there is very little anyone can do to prevent Russian domination of a U.S. ally.

At the United Nations earlier this week, France introduced a resolution calling on Russia to withdraw from Georgia. Russia used its veto power to prevent the measure from passing. Russia has its own measure at the U.N. that endorses its ongoing presence in the former Soviet republic, but it will likely be blocked by the United States and France.

It is unlikely that the United Nations will come to agreement on a resolution, much less on what action to take in response to a Russian occupation of Georgia.

NATO, which has entertained the idea of Georgian membership in the defense alliance, is in a similar position, unable to offer Georgia any assistance outside of rhetorical support in opposition to a Russian occupation. NATO members have been hard pressed to find troops for the war in Afghanistan, and the United States is overcommitted militarily to Afghanistan and Iraq.

Tit for Tat

Russia has also hinted that it may recognize the independence of South Ossetia, and another Georgian breakaway province, Abkhazia. Such a move would likely be viewed as a tit-for-tat response to western recognition of Kosovo’s independence from Serbia, which was adamantly opposed by Moscow.

For now, at least, it appears that Russia will have a free hand in Georgia, with the Georgians unable to mount a serious defense and the west unable to provide more than words of encouragement.

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