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Russia is solidifying its position in Georgia and tightening its grip on South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
First Russia intervened in South Ossetia. Then Russian military forces advanced into Georgia proper, taking control of military bases and the Poti seaport. Most recently, Russian president Dmitry Medvedev recognized the independence of Georgia’s two breakaway provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And the Russians may not be finished. Possible AnnexationRussia’s recent actions in Georgia and its two disputed provinces could lead to an outright annexation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by the Kremlin. Moscow has already taken steps to reinforce its position in the two disputed regions, and there is ongoing talk of deepening diplomatic and military ties between Russia and the breakaway provinces. Both South Ossetia and Abkhazia have sought either complete independence from Georgia or inclusion in Russia since shortly after the breakup of the former Soviet Union. Formal ties between Moscow and the two provinces, backed by Russian military force, could lead to the latter scenario unfolding in the not-too-distant future. Western ReactionsSo far, the west has not been able to do much in response to Russian actions except for some supportive rhetoric and warnings of serious consequences. It remains unclear what those consequences would be. NATO is tied down in Afghanistan, and even if it weren’t it is doubtful that the defense alliance would intervene militarily on behalf of a non-NATO member. Georgia has long sought membership in NATO, as has the former Soviet republic of Ukraine. But that membership has not materialized and is likely to be quite far away. The United States is heavily committed in Afghanistan and Iraq and lacks the military forces necessary to counter Russian moves in Georgia. Of course, it is unlikely that the United States would go to war with Russia over Georgia anyway. The European Union cannot do much more than offer words of support, and the United Nations is incapable of action given Russian veto power on the Security Council. The Way AheadRussia appears to be strengthening its hold on South Ossetia, bolstering its position in Abkhazia, and establishing a long-term presence in Georgia proper with military checkpoints and control of key Georgian infrastructure. The United States has been providing humanitarian aid to Georgia since the fighting ended, and approximately 100 U.S. military personnel are reportedly still in Georgia after completing a joint U.S.-Georgian military exercise. What Russia will do next is anybody’s guess. At the end of the day, though, the reality remains that there is little the United States, Europe, or the United Nations can do to stop Russia from exercising its political and military will on Georgia.
The copyright of the article Russia to Annex Georgia? in International Affairs is owned by Greg Reeson. Permission to republish Russia to Annex Georgia? in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.
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