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The fighting in South Ossetia is quickly getting out of hand, presenting significant problems not only for Georgia, but for the United States and Russia as well.
Make no mistake about it. The conflict between Georgia and its secessionist region of South Ossetia is really a war between Georgia and Russia, and by extension, a war between Russia and the United States. Tensions have been building for some time now, and frequent skirmishes have erupted in the past. But it now appears that the minor skirmishes have erupted into full-blown combat, and the fighting could spread. Roots of the ProblemRussia has been at odds with Georgia for years now, and the United States has steadily been developing stronger ties to the former Soviet republic. U.S. and Georgian forces work together regularly to combat terrorism in the region and to prevent spillover from the violent conflict that has besieged Chechnya. Part of the problem for Russia is that Georgia represents one more area where the United States and NATO have encroached on what has been Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. NATO expansion has steadily pushed Russia’s traditional buffer area back, and Russian resistance has been mounting for years. In response, Russia has back the secessionist movement in South Ossetia, as well as the secessionist movement in Abkhazia. Russia forces have been, and continue to be, present in both regions, ostensibly for peacekeeping purposes. The core of the problem is Georgia’s desire for membership in NATO, and Russia’s opposition to that membership. As the point nears where Georgia’s membership in the defense alliance will be decided, tensions have been heating up. Now it is being reported that the conflict has expanded beyond the Georgians and the South Ossetians, if not in territory at least in personnel, and that it is the Russians that are now involved. What’s Next?The real question now is what the Russians are up to. Will they be content to maintain the territorial integrity of the South Ossetian region, or will the fighting spread into Georgia itself? If it does, what does the United States do? Georgia is strongly pro-western and strongly pro-U.S. America has an active military relationship with Georgia that includes counterterrorism activities and large-scale military exercises. The conflict is important, at least psychologically, for the both the United States and Russia. And while Russia clearly has the means at its disposal to intervene on behalf of South Ossetia, does the United States have any reserve military capacity left to come to Georgia’s aid? It is doubtful that the United States would become militarily involved in the defense of Georgia, but it is also unclear what response options are available to Washington, and how far the United States would be willing to go to confront the Russians.
The copyright of the article Russia's War with Georgia in International Affairs is owned by Greg Reeson. Permission to republish Russia's War with Georgia in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.
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