Formulated by the geologist M. King Hubbert, peak oil refers to the point at which maximum oil production is reached, and then permanently declines. Supporters believe that world oil production is about to reach such a peak. However, there are many who disagree with such predictions.
Cambridge Energy Associates (CERA)
A 2006 press release by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) states that peak oil supporters "tend to consider only proven remaining reserves of conventional oil." According to CERA's analysis of global oil supply, the remainder is three times as large as the 1.2 trillion barrels estimated by peak oil proponents.
In "Why the Peak Oil Theory Falls Down: Myths, Legends and the Future of Oil Resources" CERA Director of Oil Industry Activity, Peter M. Jackson, writes that "the global resource base of conventional and unconventional oils, including historical production of 1.08 trillion barrels and yet-to-be produced resources, is 4.82 trillion barrels and likely to grow." According to CERA Chairman Daniel Yergin, peak oil proponents are crying wolf, and not for the first time: "This is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil. Each time-- whether it was the 'gasoline famine' at the end of WWI or the 'permanent shortage' of the 1970s-- technology and the opening of new frontier areas has banished the spectre of decline. There's no reason to think that technology is finished this time."
International Energy Agency (IEA)
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is a Paris-based organization founded in 1974 in the wake of the oil crisis. It acts as an "energy policy advisor" to 27 member countries, including major consumers and producers of energy like China, India, Russia and the OPEC countries.
A 2005 IEA Report, "Resource to Reserves: Oil and Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future" explores the possibility of a peak in oil production, with the expectation that oil demand will grow by more than 50% between 2002 and 2030. Recognizing that meeting that demand will "call for major technological progress and investment" the report maintains that "in principle, there is no shortage of these hydrocarbons in the ground." It is not geology but willpower; a 5% increase in worldwide recovery would bring more oil than Saudi Arabia's reserves. Non-conventional oil deposits are plentiful, they just need to be further developed, particularly the Canadian oils sands which "contain more oil than all the world's current reserves."
Abiotic Oil Theory
In "The Deep Hot Biosphere" the late Cornell University physicist Thomas Gold argues in favour of abiotic theory, a theory founded and supported by a small group of mainly Russian scientists. Abiotic theory suggests that oil, gas and coal deposits have their origins in natural gas flows which feed bacteria living at extreme depths under the Earth's surface. In short, oil and coal are not the result of the decomposition of fossils; rather, they are formed through tectonic forces.
Gold argues that hydrocarbons existed at the time of the solar system's formation and are abundant on other planets where no life is thought to have flourished in the past (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and some of their moons). Gold maintains that there must therefore be nearly limitless pools of liquid primordial hydrocarbons deep in the earth, and these pools slowly replenish conventional oil reservoirs. According to this theory, then, peak oil could not be true as the necessary premise that oil is a finite resource is wrong.
For information about the supporters of peak oil, read An Introduction to Peak Oil Theory. To learn about the ramifications of a permanent decline in peak oil, read The Consequences of Peak Oil.
