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Ukraine, Russia, and the Conflict in GeorgiaOvertures to the West May Come to an EndUkraine, a pro-western nation seeking closer ties with the United States and Europe, is reassessing its position and power structure since Russia invaded Georgia.
Reuters reported September 3 that the coalition government in Ukraine had fallen apart due to bitter infighting between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Reuters quoted Yushchenko as saying, “I will use my right to dismiss parliament and announce early elections.” Reacting to the Russian Invasion of GeorgiaUkraine has been in a tailspin since Russia invaded Georgia on August 8 in response to a Georgian military offensive against the breakaway province of South Ossetia, home to a significant number of Russian citizens and Russian peacekeepers. Ukraine is considered by Russia to be vital to Russian strategic interests. Pro-western overtures over the years and a concerted effort to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have riled Moscow, and Ukraine fears it could be the next target of Russian aggression. Ukraine’s western leanings began in earnest after the 2004 Orange Revolution, an event that did not sit well with then Russian president Vladimir Putin. Jockeying for PowerA significant struggle for power has been underway in Ukraine, with President Yushchenko, Prime Minister Tymoshenko, and former prime minister Viktor Yanukovich each vying for more control over the Ukrainian government. Russia’s invasion of Georgia added to the chaos as top officials in Ukraine began to worry about what was going to happen next. If the parliament cannot form a new governing coalition in the next 30 days, President Yushchenko can call for new elections later this year. Moscow’s Interest Russia is concerned about Ukraine for a couple of reasons. First, Ukraine is considered by Moscow to be a sort of buffer with the west, and Ukrainian overtures to the United States and Europe are seen by Moscow as an encroachment on Russia’s periphery and traditional sphere of influence. Second, multiple Russian energy pipelines run through Ukraine to Europe, so Moscow has a significant financial, and political, interest in what happens in Kiev. Russia would very much like to keep Ukraine in its orbit, and Ukraine is now worried that Russia might try to turn its wishes into reality through the use of force. The Russian invasion of Georgia only served to reinforce this idea. The Way AheadUkraine’s future is very much unclear. The United States and Europe are not able to offer much beyond diplomatic and financial support to pro-western forces in the country. Military support is certainly not an option for the United States or Europe, with the former lacking the ability to shore up Ukraine and the latter lacking the will. For now, the power struggle will likely continue and some sort of coalition will be formed. The really interesting part will be the run up to the presidential election scheduled for just about a year and a half from now.
The copyright of the article Ukraine, Russia, and the Conflict in Georgia in International Affairs is owned by Greg Reeson. Permission to republish Ukraine, Russia, and the Conflict in Georgia in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.
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